Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
