Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
